The Deputy GM

I know I'm weird. I find the NBA far more entertaining than college basketball, a very unpopular view amongst those (in Madison, WI at least) who haven't watched an NBA game since each team in the league was changing its colors to purple and teal in some kind of Starter jacket arms race. Last night, the Bucks didn't have a game, so I watched Wisconsin play Gonzaga, mostly so I could make conversation with all of the Badger fans around here and not sound like a complete fool.

I saw Wisconsin jack up contested three after contested three in desperate fashion, despite having plenty of time remaining on the shot clock. Hearing Jay Bilas say stuff like "Wisconsin has been using all of the shot clock" with 14 seconds left on it suggests that this is normal behavior, but you do have to keep in mind that this guy also thinks The Pterodactyl sucks. Individualised observations:

• Jon Leuer scored 18 points in ugly fashion. I felt like I was like watching a team trying to run its offense through Mark Madsen.
• Jason Bohannon needs to stop shooting, because he isn't very good at it.
• Keaton Nankivil looks like he may be the best player on the team, but had an off night.
• Jordan Taylor is a quality player and should probably start ahead of Bohannon or Jarmusz.
• Trevon Hughes isn't a super great, but his experience, intelligence and decent skills make him a very good college player

Maybe its too early in the season, maybe this is the result of back-to-back game nights. I'm sure I'll be drawn in to watch again.

Or maybe I'll watch Marquette.

Doesn't matter which team, or how bad they were the previous year. Every preseason I get overly optimistic about my team's chances. This season's Milwaukee Bucks are no different. National media has written them off already - and why not? They've lost a former All-Star in Richard Jefferson, as well as two young, "rising star" types in Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions. And they were not good last season. Let's be honest, missing the playoffs in the NBA is not easy.

So, why am I optimistic? Let's start with the easy ones. Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut are back from injuries. Both players were having career-type years before their injuries last season. Both players look to be fully recovered so far this preseason. According to the excellent resource 82games.com, the Bucks were a winning team when Redd or Bogut were on the floor, and those are the only two significant contributors who can make that claim. No wonder things went bad when those two were out. If these two stay healthy, Milwaukee is easily a playoff team...that's not saying much, but it's a good place to start.

And now to address the departures. First of all, Charlie Villanueva. He's a volume scorer, and not a very good one at that. He wastes too many possessions, doesn't defend well at all, and doesn't rebound as much as a power forward should. He can be very good when he's on a hot streak, but overall, I consider Villanueva to be below average. John Hammond has replaced him with Ersan Ilyasova, Kurt Thomas and the mysteriously-under-the-radar Hakim Warrick. I caught a few of Ilyasova's games last season in Spain, and liked what I saw - a physical, defense-first power forward who can also shoot some threes. I love PFs who can shoot threes*. Its like a secret weapon. +1. Thomas has been around forever, and while he doesn't score much, has always been a player who does more good than bad. +2. And Warrick...normally, I'm not a big fan of "instant offense" type role players, but this guy actually looks good. He's the player Charlie Villanueva should be. He has the same "no defense" reputation, but he looked very capable in the preseason game I attended against Chicago, despite spending a good chunk of minutes matched up against the opposing center (granted it was mostly just Chris Richard, but still, its a good test).

* As long as they can do other things well. Sorry, CV.

When the Bucks traded Richard Jefferson at the start of the offseason, the general reaction from the national media was some combination of "great trade for San Antonio" and "same old Bucks". In reality, the Bucks might not have been able to fill out a full roster with Jefferson on the books. It was necessary, but it also makes sense from a basketball perspective. Jefferson's value shot up after he primary scorer in the second half of the season. He wasn't really that good...there are plenty of players in the NBA (and even the D-League, for that matter) who are perfectly capable of scoring lots of points with good defense. The difference between those players and Richard Jefferson is opportunity. Jefferson is a good player, but not 25% of our payroll good. Like Warrick, I suspect that Carlos Delfino might be better than advertised on the defensive side. And we know he can shoot. So, what can Jefferson do that Delfino can't?

The toughest loss to take is Ramon Sessions. I predicted that he would end up taking the Bucks qualifying offer, but Minnesota came out of nowhere and snapped him up. He's a very good player, and we'll miss him. But, hope is not lost. Since I'm such a huge nerd, I watched online streams of all of the Bucks' summer league games. The standout player was Brandon Jennings, without a doubt. Against guys who are now bagging groceries, he was a perfect combination of Steve Nash mixed with Allen Iverson. The real NBA preseason hasn't been quite as easy for him, but there's no doubt that the ability is there. This guy could be huge. Luke Ridnour is uninspiring, but he's been on fire in the preseason. He's 28 years old, so just about the right age for a career year. Then we have Andrew Bogut's buddy, Roko Ukic. He's huge for a point guard, so you would imagine he's going to be the defensive stopper at that position. Good role player to have around for matchups with bigger, physical point guards like Chauncey Billups. If our rotation was Sessions/Jennings/Ridnour, these opponents could cause all kinds of trouble all night.

So there we go, you have my positive spin. Seriously though, I actually do like what Hammond is doing. In the past, our roster has been full of old stiffs who make me cringe every time they come into a game. Now, we have more younger players who I actually want to watch. Something else occurred to me too. In baseball, we're familiar with the concept of a platoon player - a player who excels in specific situations, and only plays in those situations. This is somewhat of a foreign concept in the basketball world, but might there be a way to make it happen? Ideally, you would like to have players who are good offensively and defensively at every position. Those players are very valuable, and typically very expensive. Andrew Bogut is one of them, and last season, Michael Redd looked like another before his injury. But what if you can't get one of those? You have a choice between players who are mediocre at everything, or one-dimensional role players. Mediocre stiffs (I love that term, it makes me think of tall white guys whose only job is to take up space and foul people) don't help you win games, but role players can when used wisely. Scott Skiles has showed us that he's not opposed to changing his lineup based on matchups. This plays well into our hands, because we have a ton of players who are very good in certain situations. Consider this:

2008/09
C: Bogut (everything), Gadzuric (stiff), Elson (stiff)
PF: Villanueva (offense...sort of), Allen (stiff), Croshere (stiff)
SF: Jefferson (everything), Mbah a Moute (defense), Alexander (stiff)
SG: Redd (everything), Bell (stiff), Bogans (stiff), Jones (stiff)
PG: Sessions (offense), Ridnour (stiff), Lue (stiff), Gill (stiff)

Totals: 3 everything players, 3 role players, 11 stiffs

2009/10
C: Bogut (everything), Thomas (defense), Elson (stiff), Gadzuric (stiff)
PF: Ilyasova (defense, maybe more), Warrick (offense)
SF: Delfino (offense), Mbah a Moute (defense), Alexander (stiff)
SG: Redd (everything), Meeks (offense), Bell (stiff)
PG: Jennings (potentially everything), Ukic (defense), Ridnour (stiff)

Totals: 3 everything, 7 role players, 5 stiffs

And I feel like that's a conservative outlook...of those stiffs left over from last year, all of them can improve. Elson and Gadzuric (this combo needs a nickname...Ajax Milwaukee?) have been productive in the past. Alexander was a rookie, and should improve. Bell was slowed significantly by knee trouble. Ridnour can be a very good player if he shoots a little better...like, as well as he has in the preseason.

Are the Bucks going all the way? Probably not, but they're going to be tough to beat. Simply put, we now have more good players than bad. That's a statement that hasn't been true in a long time.

I've gotta say, I'm quite surprised by the amount of outrage that JJ Hardy's potential free agency date has generated. From what I gather, and I'm no CBA expert: if JJ Hardy spends 20 or more days in the minors, the Brewers retain his rights for one more season.

First off, I don't think Doug Melvin is going to do this to him unless he hits like shit in AAA. So its probably a moot point. But if it did happen, and Hardy doesn't make it back to Milwaukee...what then? Many people blogs and message boards have expressed extreme displeasure in this potential situation. While I do see their point, I don't agree with it.

In recent years, the Brewers probably could have handed starting jobs to Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks on opening day of their respective rookie seasons. Instead, they waited a couple of months. There may have been many reasons for this, but near the top of the list, the Brewers simply wanted to delay the start of these players' arbitration clocks. Once they reach three full years of service time, their salary goes up. Makes a lot of sense on the business side. And you know what? Every other team in baseball agrees - they all do this. Had Braun not signed a long-term contract, the Brewers could have easily paid him the league minimum for 3 1/2 seasons.

Hardy's situation is a little different, because the team would be delaying his free agency toward the end of his 6-year stint under Brewer control instead of the very beginning. That's a little unusual, but in this case, the money actually works out a little bit better for the player! Say the Brewers would have waited until June of 2005 to hand him the starting job. Assuming no contracts are signed, Hardy's annual salaries would look like this:

2005: league minimum
2006: league minimum
2007: league minimum
2008: league minimum
2009: arbitration
2010: arbitration
2011: arbitration

If we make a move to delay his free agency this season, Hardy ends up quite a bit richer:

2005: league minimum
2006: league minimum
2007: league minimum
2008: arbitration
2009: arbitration
2010: arbitration
2011: arbitration

Obviously, Hardy would prefer to hit free agency in 2011. But compared to what could have been (and usually was, for most prospects), he's really not doing too badly.

On a more basebally angle, you also have to ask why the Brewers need to keep a player who isn't performing on the active roster. While Hardy's defense remains solid, his bat just hasn't been there. If the Brewers think that Alcides Escobar gives them a better chance to win games right now, why should the Brewers keep a backup SS - and only SS - on the roster when they could have a more versatile player? Sure, it sucks for JJ Hardy, but perhaps he should have thought of that before he decided to hit .229/.300/.367 this season.

Well, wasn't that exciting?

JJ Hardy optioned to AAA Nashville, Alcides Escobar called up

Something wasn't right with JJ, and it was starting to affect his usually-good defense too. He has his own theory.

"I think these next couple of days are going to be really nice. Just having three days off, that's going to be exactly what I needed. Triple-A, whatever, I'll go down there and do what I'm supposed to do, but I'm pretty excited about getting three days to rest."

Didn't you just have three days off over the All-Star break though? JJ then went on to make a weird golf analogy:

"I like to think of it as the equivalent of a golfer who is a five- or six handicap and they're going out there for four straight months shooting in the 100s and they can't figure it out. I think a golfer, after that, would take a week off and then come back and shoot in the 70s again. In baseball, you can't do that."

Some guys just want time off to work on their rap album. Other guys want that week off so they can magically increase their performance by 30%. Clearly, JJ Hardy has discovered the secret to both baseball and golf.

I'll admit that I've been a huge fan of Escobar ever since he was signed at age 17, so I'm really excited to have him around for an extended look. For me, the encouraging thing is that he's 1) always been young for his level, and 2) made significant improvements every single year. Believe it or not, there were a lot of questions about his defense during his first couple of seasons. Now, he's a defensive wizard. There were questions about his power, but with the exception of one bad year at pitcher-friendly Brevard County, his ISO has increased at every stop in the minors. At 22, he's already a major league player, and he's only going to get better. Hardy may still be the better player right now, but I expect Escobar to have the better career.

Bill Hall DFA, Jason Bourgeois called up

You know, I was really starting to think Bill Hall might be turning it around. But I thought the same thing at the beginning of the season too. Best case, the Brewers work out a trade that involves eating some of Hall's salary. That's better than just releasing him, at least.

Bourgeois is a speedy slap hitter, or the type of player that routinely kills the Brewers despite not actually being good. Maybe I won't be quite so annoyed if one was on my team.

Bill Castro fired, Chris Bosio called up

Brew Crew Ball pointed out yesterday morning that, of the seven major league veteran starters we've used this season, six have ERAs higher than 2008. Five currently have their worst ERA since 2003. Three of them have their career-worst ERA.

ERA over a partial season isn't the most meaningful thing in the world, but that still says a lot. When everybody is underperforming, its logical to look at the one common thread. That is the pitching coach.

Boz'sNashville staff had a 4.10 ERA, good for third in the PCL. He's gotten good results from not-so-good pitchers, so I'm hopeful. Good to see him back in a Brewer uniform.

I don't think any of these moves will magically turn our season around, but they certainly can't hurt. I'm excited to watch Escobar play.

As last night's loss to San Diego dragged on, my viewing preferences began leaning over toward the Spike channel, who just happened to be showing something more interesting than their standard MMA fan-oriented programming.

Before that, I actually did see something I've wanted to see for a long time. Ken Macha managed a winnable game - as Ned Yost would have put it - like "the 7th game of the World Series". After Braden Looper left the bases loaded with no outs in the 6th, Macha used three relievers - all very good (yes, Claudio Vargas is good in relief) and very situation-oriented pitchers. Vargas came in to induce a popup or get a strikeout, and he did. Mitch Stetter came on to strike out Adrian Gonzalez. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. It was absolutely the right move, it just didn't work out. "Mariano" DiFelice was ready to go next. It reminded me again of this chart, courtesy of (ironically, perhaps?) Padres assistant GM and Moneyball hero Paul Depodesta:

The top of the 6th inning last night falls squarely in the upper-right square. Better luck next time, Ken.

The rest of the game illustrated why I'm not suited to root for a good team. A little bit of success spoils me. Back in 2002 or 2003, I would have been glued to the Brewer game, just knowing that Richie Sexson would hit a couple of dingers to get us back into the game. But last night, The Empire Strikes Back was on, and that won out.

I'm seriously considering making a fake Chubby Wells twitter. Everybody needs to be kept up to date on the latest mystery teams that are "preparing" a full MLE offer sheet for Ramon Sessions. And I'm pretty sure I could be just as accurate in making shit up as Chubby himself, if not better.

Chubby's official spokesperson Gery Woelfel mentioned that the Kings, who just drafted another PG with the 4th overall pick, are interested now. Were they the mystery team mentioned last week?

I really, really hope that Jesus Colome becomes a closer, and uses "Jesus Saves" by Slayer as his entrance music.

Please let this happen, Jesus.

That is all.

Damn. No sooner than I mention how we haven't really set RJ Swindle up to succeed, he gets DFAd and subsequently claimed by Tampa Bay.

Chances are, this won't be a huge loss, but part of me wonders if Swindle might have made it as more than a LOOGY, assuming our catchers could ever get on the same page. It wouldn't be the first time Tampa Bay nabbed a pitcher from us that we gave up on too soon. He's definitely going on my watchlist.

Good luck, RJ.

I think its great that Prince Fielder was not suspended for standing around outside the Dodgers' clubhouse after Tuesday night's game. But I've heard a lot of disappointment from Brewers fans in the fact that Guillermo Mota was not handed a suspension either. Would that have been an appropriate punishment for the Dodgers? Really, could that even be considered a punishment at all? Personally, I think I've seen enough of the ex-closer who flamed out to say with some authority that losing Mota for any number of games would have to be considered a positive for the LA Dodgers.

Rimshot.

I guess things like Ultimate Fighting are all the rage now. I've never watched it, and I don't think I would enjoy it if I did. Those of you who know me are aware how much injuries freak me out. However, if there is one kind of fight I can enjoy, it would be the awkward "these guys have no business even trying to fight" variety of fighting. The type of fights you occasionally see in normal sports. Basketball players slapping each other around, hockey players putting more effort into not falling over on their skates than actual fighting, fat baseball players charging at each other. That's some good stuff.

Naturally, I was disappointed to have fallen asleep on the couch before Prince Fielder's late inning heroics. And by heroics, I mean getting beaned, standing around looking like he had just been screwed over by Vince McMahon, and of course, the clubhouse rampage. Brew Crew Ball had an excellent recap of the events, if you also missed it.

Before all of this, I had meant to write about AAAA superstar RJ Swindle and his major league struggles. I feel bad for him. How could a pitcher be so dominant at the AAA level, but get hit so hard in the majors*? Is the talent gap that wide, or is he doing something differently? Swindle has been known to break PITCH/fx, so its hard to tell for sure what he's throwing. Last night, most of his hits allowed came off of low-80s fastballs. Rafael Furcal and Juan Castro struck out on offspeed (lol) stuff.

* Ben Hendrickson would also be interested

Should a junkballer rely so much on a (likely) below-average fastball? I don't think so, especially considering the situations: Swindle was ahead 1-2 in the count when he gave up the home run to Matt Kemp. He was ahead 0-2 on Russell Martin's single. Guillermo Mota singled on a first-pitch fastball. Now, I didn't intend to turn this into a Jason Kendall bash-fest, but you have to wonder what he was calling for. The funny thing is that this goes against my general observations of Kendall's work - I've always felt that he tends to call for more offspeed pitches when ahead in the count.

Maybe Kendall isn't familiar with Swindle's pitch selection. Or maybe he doesn't really call a good game. I don't know. But do think that RJ Swindle can get major league hitters out. We don't have much information on minor league pitch types/speeds yet, but I'd be very interested to know what he was throwing down there. Do we need to do a better job of scouting our own players, in order to put them in positions to succeed?

Jason Schmidt today. Winnable. Ramon Sessions still a free agent. Shocking.